You should know that my theory has “always” been that the central-european banking system and it´s undue influence in the ECB created in 2003 the “peripheral” (and core) debt problem, and is heavily burdened by it. Besides, the German industry would be fully loaded with southerner commercial debt.
But recently there have been news about the trade deficit with Germany turning “positive”. (Ups)
And now I have received this.
This expert economics-journalist says that during this year, and thanks to the intervention of the ECB, this situation has changed. Central-european banks have got debt repayments but they have not repurchased, and the Spanish bonds have passed to Spanish hands (that, and that German and French banks have no structure to make real investments, what explains the negative interest rates in the U.S. and Central Europe).
The activity of the ECB would be part of a German plan of “re-nationalization” of the public debt, up to a threshold of 85%, when the default (or a bailout with harsh and unfair conditions) would no longer hurt Germany, but the new holders of Spanish public debt (the Spaniards).
Banks and German industries would get rid of the problem they created since 2003, with the invaluable support of our inept former prime minister J.L.R.Zapatero and of our current short-sighted prime minister M.Rajoy, that (as always) has let the time pass for his own purposes (to win the regional elections that are being hold this autumn) and allowed our tactical advantage to disappear.
Be it by an evil German plan, or due to the effects of the Basel rules (never enough criticized), If this is true there are reasons to be scared to the bone.
If what he says is true, I think Hispa-Greece would be quite likely.
But, as I commented in June, and tried to email to Mr. Rajoy in April, Spain has two weapons to stop the suicide spiral where the central-european-industry are taking Europe. One is to default, that would attack the banks. Perhaps we have lost that, but it only makes clearer that we must use the other, that goes straight against the commercial debt: To leave the Euro.